Nats vs Falcons build-up: Stats don’t lie but they don’t tell the whole story

The Herts Falcons and Harlow Nationals were the two outstanding teams of 2012, and the Nationals deservedly lifted the NBL championship trophy.

12 months ago the Nationals were leaders in all the main statistical categories. This time around the numbers are not in their favour. The Falcons are ahead of them in all offensive and defensive categories. It is often said that statistics don’t lie, but on this occasion they certainly do not tell the whole story.

Judging by the figures shown in the table below, the Falcons should win this game hands down, but only two months ago the Nationals came just short of sweeping the Falcons in the doubleheader at Grovehill Ballpark. It required a superhuman effort by Herts to come from behind on both occasions to win by the smallest of margins 3-2 and 8-5.

The slow start of the season for Harlow distorts their season stats. They go into Saturday’s semi-final with more or less the same squad which beat the Herts Falcons in game 6 of the 2012 NBL final.

It is not a secret that many Herts fans see the Nationals as a very awkward opponent. Finishing as the top seed does not seem to have carried much of an advantage for Herts in the semi-final pairing. Having said this, the teams in the other semi-final are just as strong. It is all set for a fascinating weekend of baseball at Farnham Park. It would take a very brave person to make any firm prediction of the outcome of the semi-finals and final this year.